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GRAFICUL COSTURILOR EXTRACTIEI PETROLIERE IN LUME CU SI FARA REDEVENTE - si cine e lovit de scaderea pretului la petrol
Cele mai mari costuri din lume la extractia de petrol (cu tot cu redevente) abia ajung la 35$-40$ pe baril, in timp ce in Arabia Saudita ($5-$6 costul de extractie) si Iraq, pretul de cost este sub 10$ barilul.
Prin urmare fara cartelul OPEC (si alte interese din jurul lui) pretul de 87-90$-115$/barilul, pret care era inainte de "prabusirea actuala a pretului petrolului' la 60-61$ barilul era un pret care asigura profituri de 2.5-3-4-6-8-9-10 ori mai mari decat preturile de cost.
Arabia Saudita produce aproape 10mil. de barili pe zi - o treime din totalul productia OPEC. O reducere a vanzarilor Saudite de Petrol pe piata Mondiala ar duce la o crestere a pretului petrolul, numai ca in acest moment politica saudita e exact contrara si doreste o scadere a pretului (spre dezavantajul Rusiei si a Iranului tari a caror PIB depinde in mare masura de exportul de petrol si gaze)
COSTUL DE EXTRACTIE A PETROLULUI IN ROMANIA ESTE IN MEDIE DE 20$/barilul cu redeventele minuscule situate intre 3.5% - 13% - COSTUL CU REDEVENTA AJUNGE LA MAXIM 23$ barilul (de tinut cont aici si de productia de gaze 'de sonda' care reprezinta 50% din productia de gaz metan a Romaniei - productie de gaze care insoteste extractia de petrol, si care face ca acest cost sa fie in realitate si mai mic)
Here Is A Simple Way Of Seeing Who Gets Screwed Most As Oil Tumbles
Oil is crashing. On Thursday, WTI crude oil was falling again, moving back below $61 a barrel.
Much has been made of the "breakeven" oil price for the world's drilling projects. This is the level at which the price of oil covers the cost of extracting the oil.
A simpler way to look at when the biggest oil players will start feeling the squeeze from lower prices is the "cash cost."
"Without OPEC action, an outage, or other response, cash cost is the only true floor," Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Longson said.
Cash cost is basically what it takes to keep oil production going, not what it takes to make oil production profitable or for a government to hit its budget projection. If you drop below your cash cost on a project, you've got to turn out the lights.
As you can see on the far right, the Canadian oil sands and the US shale basins are very expensive to tap. Meanwhile in the Middle East, the Saudis, the Iraqis, and the Iranians basically stick a straw in the ground, and oil comes out.
The recent story in the market has been that a supply glut has pressured oil prices, and in response some expected OPEC to announce a production cut at its Thanksgiving meeting. That didn't happen, and Longson notes that it isn't as simple as slashing production to combat low prices.
"Simply slowing supply growth is usually not enough to balance an oversupplied market in the short run," Longson writes. "In commodities without a cartel, existing production must be shut-in. If true, marginal cost of investment is not the relevant metrics, it's variable operating cost, which is closer to $35-$40/bbl on the high end."
Longson's mention of a commodity without a cartel also comes as Saudi oil minister Ali Al-Naimi said on Wednesday that the market — not the OPEC cartel – was in control of the oil market.
And these comments imply that this chart from Morgan Stanley, showing cash costs for oil projects around the world, might be the place to find out when things will really ugly in the oil market.(Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-cash-costs-2014-12#ixzz3Nyd7UakH)
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