23:59
Comentarii Adauga Comentariu

Cinci căi spre victorie Pentru Donald Trump



One of the most pervasive myths in American politics is that a “Big Blue Wall" will protect Democratic presidential nominees, perhaps even those who lose the popular vote. In truth, this electoral Blue Wall is more like a collection of disconnected forts—some imposing, some not—and the loss of any one of them would likely doom the Democratic nominee.

The Blue Wall—states where the Democrats have won every presidential race since 1992—includes the entire Northeast except for New Hampshire, the Midwestern Great Lakes states aside from Ohio and Indiana, the three Pacific Coast states, and Hawaii. Even holding the wall is no guarantee of victory. John Kerry won the entire Blue Wall in 2004, plus New Hampshire, yet still lost to George W. Bush by 35 electoral votes. Al Gore won the entire Blue Wall in 2000—back when it was worth 13 more electoral votes—plus Iowa and New Mexico, yet still lost to Bush by 5 electoral votes. For the Democrats, holding the Blue Wall is necessary but not sufficient.

It is often claimed that Donald Trump has several must-win states, and this is true (although the states listed are often wrong). In addition to the 23 states that Mitt Romney won by at least 7 percentage points, which Trump isn't going to lose, Trump has 3 must-win states: Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. (Polling finds that Trump narrowly overtook Clinton in mid-September in all three.) If Hillary Clinton wins any of those states, it'll be a knockout blow.

But in addition to the 15 states where President Obama beat Romney by at least 10 points, which Clinton isn't going to lose, Clinton has 5 must-win states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Virginia. (Polling finds her ahead in all five.) The first four are part of the Blue Wall; the Old Dominion is not. If Trump wins any of those states, he'll be headed to the White House.

So there are eight potential knockout states in this election, and five of them are being defended by Hillary Clinton.

If both candidates win their respective must-win states (and split the two competitive congressional districts in Nebraska and Maine), that will bring the electoral-vote tally to 260 for Clinton and 253 for Trump, with Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire (25 combined electoral votes) still in play. Clinton's task would then be to win any two of the four remaining states; Trump's task would be to win any three. If Clinton wins Colorado and Trump wins the other three, the candidates would be tied at 269, with the election moving to the House of Representatives.

The Five Paths

Clinton's path to 270 is relatively simple: (a) steal Ohio, Florida, or North Carolina; or (b) win her five must-win states and prevent Trump from getting 16 more electoral votes from among the 25 remaining on the board. (If Clinton wins right-leaning Ohio, Florida, or North Carolina, there's no way she'll fail to win the requisite number of left-leaning states.) Trump's task is to win his 3 must-win states (plus the 23 states that are givens) and then follow any one of five different paths to winning the remaining 17 electoral votes he'd need to achieve victory.

The Virginia Path:

Many commentators quickly wrote Virginia off for Trump. This reflected unfavorable early polling as well as Republicans' demoralization over Virginia's having moved left in recent years. But Trump's poll numbers have looked much better there of late, and Republicans have generally overreacted to the Old Dominion's leftward shift. Moreover, the early polling in Virginia was surely affected by Clinton's having had ads on the air there while Trump didn't. By late August, Clinton had spent more than $5 million on ads in Virginia, according to Associated Press tallies, to Trump's $0.

Of all the left-leaning states, Virginia is the most centrist. It was just 0.02 points to the left of the national average in the 2012 presidential election, and it slid only 1 point further leftward between 2008 and 2012. It's also where Trump's efforts to reach out to black voters—which he's done more than any other GOP nominee in memory—could pay off. Roughly 20 percent of Virginia's population is black, compared with 13 percent nationally.

If Trump wins Virginia, then he almost surely isn't going to lose Florida or North Carolina (both of which are noticeably to Virginia's right), almost surely isn't going to lose populist Iowa (where polls suggest he is faring about 5 points better than he is nationally), and isn't likely to lose Ohio (which is a bit to the right of Virginia and shows him polling better). The combination of these states would give him 272 electoral votes.

During the week of September 4-10, Trump smartly spent $2.2 million in Virginia—double what he spent in any other state—according to AP. Clinton, meanwhile, spent $0, choosing instead to waste money in Arizona and Georgia, where she isn't going to win and doesn't need to win.

The Midwestern Path:

Normally, Michigan would be too heavy of a lift for a Republican candidate in a close race. On average, across the past five presidential contests, the state has been 6 points to the left of the nation. But Trump's working-class message and manner seem tailor-made for Michigan, and it's possible he could turn the state, as Obama did Virginia in 2008. Alternatively, he could pull off an upset in Wisconsin or Minnesota, states that are generally to the right of Michigan.

Clinton hasn't run any ads in Michigan (or Wisconsin or Minnesota), while Trump has run a few there of late. Trump announced his economic plan in Detroit and delivered one of his campaign's best lines just down the road: "[I]t used to be, cars were made in Flint and you couldn't drink the water in Mexico. Now the cars are made in Mexico and you can't drink the water in Flint."

If Trump wins his must-win states, plus Michigan and Iowa, he would have 275 electoral votes.

The Colorado Path:

Between June 12 and July 16, Clinton spent about $4 million unopposed in Colorado, while building up a double-digit lead there in the polls. But the Trump campaign didn't write off the state. It spent $1.1 million there from September 4 to 10, according to AP, to Clinton's $47,000. The only Colorado poll taken in September (released on September 15) found Trump up 4 points.

Colorado is a somewhat volatile state whose voters may not be inclined to back the third Obama term for which Clinton is effectively running. The state was slightly left of the nation in 2008 and 2012, but by less than 2 points each time. In each of the past four elections, it has supported the winner by more than he has won by nationwide. Additionally, Colorad-ans haven't seemed too impressed with the Clintons in the past. After more or less mirroring the nation and backing Bill Clinton by 4.3 points in 1992 (he won by 5.6 points nationally), Colorado swung far to the right of the nation in 1996, supporting Bob Dole by 1.4 points in a race that Clinton won by 8.5 points nationwide.

If Trump were to hold his must-win states and win Iowa, he could win the presidency by pairing a win in Colorado with one in either Nevada or New Hampshire. He could also get to 269—and the House—by winning his must-win states, Iowa, Colorado, and Maine's 2nd Congressional District (worth one electoral vote), where polling finds him up 5 points (per Real Clear Politics).

The New Hampshire Path:

While Clinton was squandering money in Arizona and Georgia, Trump sensibly outspent her $576,000 to $350,000 in New Hampshire during the week of September 4-10. New Hampshire is famously populist and independent, is predominantly white, and has an older population (which usually favors Trump). Trump did extremely well there in the GOP primary. While the Real Clear Politics average finds Clinton up by roughly 5 points in the Granite State, she has outspent Trump there to date by a tally of $5.2 million to $598,000. During the week of September 11, after Clinton was propped up, picked up, and folded into her van, she spent more on ads in New Hampshire than in any other week so far, while Trump didn't press his advantage.

If Trump holds his must-win states, a win in New Hampshire, paired with wins in Iowa, Nevada, and Maine CD-2 (or in Iowa and Colorado) would get him to 270 (or 272, in the Colorado scenario) without having to win a single left-leaning state with double-digit electoral votes. This inviting path could be complicated, however, by national Republicans' apparent and peculiar reluctance to fund Senator Kelly Ayotte's reelection bid. RCP, which reported this reticence, shows Ayotte with a narrow 2-point lead, despite her having been outspent two-to-one. New Hampshire is a small state, but it's not impossible that it could end up deciding which party controls both the White House and the Senate.

The Pennsylvania Path:

The most oft-discussed path to a Trump win is through Pennsylvania. Paired with victories in his must-win states, a triumph in Pennsylvania would give Trump 273 electoral votes.

Trump's platform and personality seem well-suited to the Keystone State, but it's hard to say how things are shaping up there. On the one hand, Clinton is polling strongly in the state, faring about 5 points better than she is nationally. On the other hand, AP reports she has outspent Trump there by about five-to-one. It could be that Pennsylvania will continue its streak, now dating back 16 presidential elections (to 1952), of going to the Republicans only when the Republican wins by enough nationally that he doesn't need it.

Trump can win without Pennsylvania, though. Indeed, he might have a better shot at victory via the Virginia, Michigan, Colorado, and New Hampshire paths. His best strategy at this point would seem to be to make Clinton defend all five paths, which is what his campaign appears to have in mind. That might put a degree of strain on the Blue Wall that the fabled fortification can't withstand.

Jeffrey H. Anderson is a Hudson Institute senior fellow.


(Fluierul)


Linkul direct catre Petitie

CEREM NATIONALIZAREA TUTUROR RESURSELOR NATURALE ALE ROMANIEI ! - Initiativa Legislativa care are nevoie de 500.000 de semnaturi - Semneaza si tu !

Comentarii:


Adauga Comentariu



Citiți și cele mai căutate articole de pe Fluierul:

Semnal de alarmă în Australia. Ziarele au fost editate cu textele acoperite cu tuș negru. Protest puternic față de cenzură

Partidul Laburist se va alia cu alte formațiuni politice din Parlamentul britanic pentru a bloca adoptarea acordului pentru Brexit

Ministrul britanic de Externe: Guvernul lui Boris Johnson are numărul necesar de voturi pentru adoptarea acordului privind Brexit

Vrea să fie liber. Lionel Messi a refuzat o clauză care l-ar fi legat pe viață de FC Barcelona

IZOLAȚI ÎN ROMÂNIA? Ei sau noi? Maria Zăican - Bătrâna din pădure - VIDEO

Un nou caz de plecare inexplicabilă. Fată de 13 ani, dată dispărută. FOTO pentru recunoaștere

Heiko Maas, ministru german, numește ofensiva turcă din Siria o "invazie" ilegitimă

Alegeri în Republica Moldova: Socialiștii au câștigat în cele mai multe raioane

Președintele Klaus Iohannis, primit la Tokyo de premierul japonez

Viceprim-ministrul spaniol îi cere liderului catalan Quim Torra să renunțe la discursul secesionist

CITATUL ZILEI

Violența din cadrul protestelor din Chile a provocat moartea a cinci persoane

Accident de autocar cu numere de Ucraina. Vehiculul cu 46 de persoane s-a răsturnat, după ce s-a izbit de un stâlp

Harghita: Jandarmii au intervenit pentru alungarea unui urs care a intrat în gospodăria unei femei din Șimonești

Fotbal: FC Liverpool, ținută în șah de Manchester United în campionatul Angliei

Un tânăr decedat și un altul rănit într-un accident produs pe o stradă din Târgu Mureș

Justin Trudeau, sub presiune în contextul în care circa 27 de milioane de canadieni sunt chemați la urne

Fotbal: Ronaldo Vieira (Sampdoria), victima strigătelor rasiste la meciul cu AS Roma

DNA anchetează acuzațiile de abuz în serviciu aduse lui Răzvan Cuc. Mădălina Mezei, fosta șefă de la TAROM, audiată

Ofensiva turcă încalcă dreptul internațional, acuză Berlinul

Vrancea: Urs accidentat mortal de un autoturism pe Ojdula, după ce animalul ar fi pătruns pe partea carosabilă

Darius Vâlcov, fost consilier pe economie și eminența cenușie a programului de guvernare al PSD, și-ar fi plagiat teza de doctorat în finanțe. Rectorul ASE propune retragerea titlului

Nivel înalt al operațiunilor de spionaj. FT: Un grup de hackeri din Rusia a "furat" identitatea unei organizații similare din Iran

Pilotul Valentin Gvinda refuză să preia conducerea TAROM, după ce a făcut o analiză a situației companiei

Eurostat: România a avut un deficit de 3% din PIB, în 2018

Întâlnire Vladimir Putin și Recep Tayyip Erdogan, la Soci, pe tema intervenției militare din nordul Siriei

Focuri de armă, trase după o mașină în Argeș. Patru persoane au reușit să fugă de polițiști. Cazul este în derulare

Economistul Robert Shiller, câștigător al premiului Nobel, crede că președintele american Donald Trump a speriat recesiunea

Box: Pugilistul ucrainean Aleksandr Gvodzik, 48 de ore în spital după o comoție cerebrală suferită în ring

Liderii din Macedonia de Nord au decis organizarea alegerilor anticipate în aprilie

EFEMERIDE ASTRONOMICE - 21 octombrie

Alegeri în Bolivia: Evo Morales pe primul loc, dar obligat să participe la turul al doilea

HOROSCOP, 21 Octombrie 2019: Semnele de apă formează o Mare Piramidă, iar punctele forte le sunt scoase în evidență

Protestele masive continuă în Liban după ce Guvernul a promis adoptarea de reforme economice

Bonurile fiscale în valoare de 328 lei emise pe 6 septembrie au ieșit câștigătoare la extragerea de duminică

Avionul Egyptair prăbuşit: Analiza uneia din cutiile negre arată că s-a pronunţat cuvântul "foc"

Trupe americane au trecut din Siria în Irak în cadrul retragerii ordonate de Trump

Dăncilă merge în Parlament la grupurile reunite ale PSD. Discuții despre votul pentru noul Guvern

ULTIMA ORĂ Boris Johnson, acționat în judecată pentru că a recomandat UE să refuze amânarea Brexit. Premierul Marii Britanii a trimis două scrisori sâmbătă noaptea

Românii au cumpărat online cu 30% mai multă mobilă, în această toamnă decât în 2018 (analiză)

IȘMB: Elevii de clasa a VII-a nu au în continuare manuale la Matematică, Chimie și Istorie

Buzău: Accident rutier pe DN 2B, în zona unei treceri de cale ferată

COPAC solicită MS și MEN să clarifice situația rezidențiatului și să îl organizeze anul acesta, nu în 2020

Președintele Iohannis se întâlnește cu premierul Japoniei; discuțiile vizează Parteneriatul strategic dintre cele două țări

Mădălina Mezei, fost director general al TAROM, chemată luni la DNA

Galați: Un autocar cu 46 de pasageri din Ucraina s-a izbit de un stâlp de pe marginea DN 26; nu sunt înregistrate victime

Prahova: Bărbat de 45 de ani, pasager într-un taxi, decedat într-un accident rutier pe Șoseaua Vestului din Ploiești

Nationalizarea Resurselor Naturale - Expunere de Motive. Cum ne-au furat si ne fura Resursele Naturale, pe baza prevederilor din actuala Constitutie a Romaniei. Ce prevede Constitutia de Azi legat de Proprietatea Publica? Ce prevedea Constitutia din 1991?

Prințul moștenitor al Arabiei Saudite vrea să devină acționar la un prestigios club de fotbal din Marea Britanie

DEEA, concurenta care a făcut sex pe INSULA IUBIRII, vedetă pe un site PORNO FOTO

Indonezia: Joko Widodo a depus jurământul și și-a început al doilea și ultim mandat prezidențial

Alegeri în Republica Moldova: Marile municipii, împărțite între partide și independenți

Hunedoara: Amenajare de șantier pentru restaurarea Castelului Corvinilor

Rugby - CM 2019: Arbitrul meciului Țara Galilor - Franța, cercetat de World Rugby

Orban dezminte informația diseminată de Dăncilă privind interferența PPE pentru deschiderea unei fabrici Volkswagen în țara vecină

Sorina Pintea: Ministerul Sănătății și Ministerul Educației nu pot rezolva problema rezidențiatului

Vietnam: Prim-ministrul promite că nu va face nicio concesie teritorială Chinei

Haltere: Florina Hulpan, triplă medaliată cu bronz la CE de juniori și tineret de la București

Accident grav. O mașină a intrat în zidul unei case. Doi morți și persoana din locuință, rănită grav

Alegeri în Republica Moldova: Ion Ceban și Andrei Năstase se vor duela în turul doi (rezultate preliminare)


Pag.1 Pag.2 Pag.3 Pag.4 Pag.5 Pag.6 Pag.7
Pag.8 Pag.9 Pag.10 Pag.11 Pag.12 Pag.13 Pag.14 Pag.15
Pag.16 Pag.17 Pag.18 Pag.19 Pag.20 Pag.21 Pag.22 Pag.23
Pag.24 Pag.25 Pag.26 Pag.27 Pag.28 Pag.29 Pag.30 Pag.31
Pag.32

Nr. de articole la aceasta sectiune: 1887, afisate in 32 pagini.



ieri 05:07 CITATUL ZILEI