Ministerul de finanțe german se așteaptă să cheltuiască 77.6 miliarde de € ( 86.2 miliarde de $ ) în următorii patru ani - scrie Wall Street Journal.

Banii sunt necesari pentru hrănirea imigranților, pentru locuințele lor și pentru cursurile de formare, cât și pentru a ajuta țările lor de origine pentru a stopa fluxul, în conformitate cu estimările bugetare actualizate pentru perioada 2017-2020 .

La aceste costuri se adaugă costurile bugetate pentru anul curent (2016) ceea ce va aduce totalul la 93.6 miliarde de € între până în 2020.

Sumele mari și recunoașterea faptului că contribuabilii germani vor plăti factura uriaşă pentru politica guvernului de a primi milioane de refugiați pe parcursul mai multor ani, s-ar putea dovedi un avantaj pentru populişti şi pentru forțele anti-imigranți în perioada premergătoare lurmătoarelor alegeri generale, ce vor avea loc în toamna anului 2017, au declarat unii analiştii .

Estimările costurilor anuale sunt stabilite să rămână în general aceleaşi de-a lungul anilor, chiar dacă sosirile de imigranți din ultima vreme s-au diminuat în mod considerabil - ceea ce reprezintă de fapt o mărturie a așteptărilor scăzute ale guvernului german cu privire la capacitatea sa de a-i integra pe noii veniti, cei mai mulți dintre imigranții din Orientul Mijlociu fiind slab instruiți, şi prin urmare fiind dificil de pus la treabă ca să lucreze pentru economia Germaniei.

Mai mult, sumele uriașe care trebuie cheltuite cu imigranții, face aproape imposibilă orice reducere de taxe şi orice creșteri de salarii ale bugetarilor în următorii 4 ani

WSJ - Germany Puts Migration-Related Costs at Over $86 Billion Over Next Four Years Merkel’s generous refugee policy could prove a boon to populist, anti-immigrant parties in 2017 election

The high cost of caring for migrants means German Chancellor Angela Merkel‘s conservative parties will have little leeway to pledge tax cuts in the 2017 election campaign.

German Family Minister Manuela Schwesig helps children to leave a room through a window during a visit at a refugee shelter in Berlin, Germany, in June. The high cost of caring for migrants means German Chancellor Angela Merkel‘s conservative parties will have little leeway to pledge tax cuts in the 2017 election campaign.PHOTO: REUTERS

By Andrea Thomas July 1, 2016

BERLIN—The tidal wave of refugees that crashed through Germany’s doors last year has long turned to a trickle, but the costs of the inflow will remain a burden on the country for years, budget figures released on Friday showed.

The German finance ministry expects to spend €77.6 billion ($86.2 billion) over the next four years feeding, housing and training refugees as well as helping their home countries to stem the flow, according to updated budget estimates for the period from 2017 to 2020. Adding budgeted costs for the current year would bring the total to €93.6 billion between by 2020.

Yearly cost estimates are set to remain broadly stable over the years even though arrivals have slowed considerably—a testament to the government’s low expectations about its ability to integrate the newcomers, most of them from the Middle-East and poorly trained, into its economy.

The large amounts and the recognition that taxpayers will be paying the bill for the government’s generous refugee policy for years to come could prove a boon to populist, anti-immigrant forces in the run-up to the next general election in the autumn of 2017, analysts said.

“Those who are critical toward migrants feel vindicated by such migration-related cost figures and are likely to vote for anti-immigration parties,” said Hermann Binkert, head of opinion-polling institute INSA.

The high cost of caring for migrants also means German Chancellor Angela Merkel ’s conservative parties will have little leeway to pledge tax cuts during the campaign.

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development data from 2015 showed Germany had the third-highest tax wedge—the difference between before- and after-tax wages—of the club’s 35 members after Belgium and Austria. The populist Alternative for Germany party has called both for lower immigration and lower taxes.

For German taxpayers, the most expensive aspect of the crisis—coming at a cost of €24 billion between 2017 and 2020—will be to cover for the social benefits granted to migrants after they obtain asylum, This cost will nearly double from €4.2 billion in 2017 to €8.2 in 2020.

This is because the government expects asylum seekers to continue coming to Germany—for instance via family reunification—and because those granted asylum are entitled to higher benefits than applicants.

The cabinet is scheduled to approve the budget blueprint on Wednesday.

Government officials sought to put the figures in a positive light, saying that the country’s prudent fiscal course in recent years meant it now had ample reserves to tackle the immigration challenge.

The data released on Friday showed Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble aimed to maintain a balanced budget in coming years despite the additional financial burden.

“This is an important signal. Particularly in these greatly uncertain times,” a German official said on Friday. This, he added, showed the government’s balanced budget goal wasn’t “a fetish.”

Despite the country’s high tax burden, German voters have applauded the country’s balanced budget over the past two years as a remarkable achievement, opinion polls show. The government has long argued other members of the eurozone should follow its lead in tightening public finances.

The federal government’s high estimates for the costs it is set to face in tackling the migrant crisis could act as a tactical advantage as it negotiates with the country’s 16 states how to spread the burden, showing its interlocutors that it is already bearing a considerable burden.

The states have put their own costs at roughly €21 billion this year, rising to €30 billion annually by 2020, and want the federal government to cover half—a demand Berlin has rejected.

The next meeting on the issue, to be attended by Ms. Merkel, Mr. Schäuble and representatives of the states, will take place next Thursday, a government official said.

The new spending plan updates a previous draft budget from March and takes into account higher tax revenue estimates of €2.5 billion for 2017. The federal government’s overall expenditure will rise from €316.9 billion in 2016 to €349.3 billion in 2020.

The rise in spending reflects mainly migration-related costs and increasing subsidies to the state’s pay-as-you-go pension scheme as more baby boomers reach retirement age. The plans assume economic growth of 1.5% next year, after an expected 1.7% this year.

The ministry also forecasts Germany’s overall debt ratio to fall to below 60% of gross domestic product in 2020, a level required by European budget rules. The debt ratio stood at 71.2% of GDP in 2015.

(Fluierul)